Lessons from China’s Economic Policy

Over the years, China has managed to turn around its economy by instituting certain reforms which have seen the country’s economy grow exponentially during the last 60 years into a global economic powerhouse. Most of these were done by recalibrating how they interacted with the informal sector in their country. The reforms first took shape in the agriculture sector with the household responsibility system (HRS) replacing the people’s commune system. Under this system, individual households were instituted as the basic unit of farm operation, as opposed to a collective team of 20 to 30 households in the past. The HRS gave individual households autonomy over production and farmers were given incentives to increase output.

(Source: http://media.philstar.com/images/the-philippine-star/business )

A study carried out by the Lancaster University Management School indicates that Between 1978 and 1984, China’s average annual growth rate of agriculture was 7.7%, after the introduction of the household responsibility system. The significant improvement in agriculture helped the country to release labour from land to industry and service sectors. This labour reallocation process was necessary as China’s agriculture was characterised by an egalitarian system of distribution of cultivated land with more than 200 million rural households, each cultivating less than 0.55 hectares. With the improvement in productivity in the agricultural sector, there was no need for a large number of people to stay on land. Agricultural employment as a share of labour force fell from more than 70% in 1978 to 60% in 1990 and 35% in 2011. The release of such a large number of economically active population from land hugely helped China’s development of the labour-intensive, low-skilled manufacturing sector.

In addition to the introduction of the HRS, China successfully re-introduced marketization. In implementing agricultural reforms, China first tried a dual-track approach. Under this approach, farmers were required to deliver a portion of their output to the state and allowed to sell the rest of the output on the free-market. With the newly earned profits, farmers set up or pulled resources into town and village owned enterprises (TVEs). These are communal organizations managed by managers on a contractual basis.

Town and village owned enterprise operate outside of the Chinese government’s apparatus and were highly market-oriented. Even though they did not enjoy preferential government treatment, they were also not subject to widespread state regulation. The study further notes that between 1979 and 1991, TVEs grew at an average rate of 25.3% in comparison to that of state owned enterprises which grew at 8.4%. Though TVEs were not private firms, since they were often owned by local governments or local communes rather than solely by private owners, they cultivated an internal culture of competition in the Chinese economy which helped stimulate efficiency of the state‐owned enterprises. It is worthy to note that TVEs were the major export drivers of China’s impressive export growth. For example, in 1999, the value of TVE exports of US$94 billion accounted for 48% of China’s total exports. Much of these were labour‐intensive products involving simple production techniques.

Another aspect that accelerated China’s growth and economic success can be attributed to privatisation. The study notes that the ownership structure of private firms was not properly defined until 1988. Private firms only became an integral part of the Chinese economy in 1997 and had their legal status established in 1998. The rapid growth of the private sector began with the introduction of the policy whereby the government not only lowered entry barriers in most sectors, but also pursued a policy of “grasping the big, and letting go of the small”. This meant that State Owned Enterprises were to only be kept in “strategic sectors” whereas small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) were either privatised or their ownership transferred from the central government to local governments.

Lastly, the study shows that China’s development in manufacturing has also benefited from inward foreign direct investment (FDI) whereby the early years of China’s history of inward FDI was particularly dominated by the Chinese diaspora. Chinese diaspora-invested firms cooperated with TVEs and other indigenous Chinese firms and introduced them to international markets as well as freed them from domestic market constraints. In this sense, the diaspora-invested firms also helped indigenous Chinese firms to exploit the country’s comparative advantage in cheap labour and to translate its comparative advantage into international competitiveness.

Kenya is a country whereby about 75% of the population rely on agriculture for employment and livelihood. Outside agriculture, a vast majority of its citizens are employed in the informal economy, accounting for 90% of the employment demographic. The route taken by China is one which the country can borrow a leaf from when looking towards ways in which it can transform and grow its economy through agriculture and manufacturing.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

 

 

 

Supporting Economic Transformation through Informal Economy

 

Last week, the Kenya Association of Manufactures (KAM) in association with the Overseas Development Institute’s (ODI) programme, Supporting Economic Transformation (SET) launched the Ten Policy Priorities for Transforming Manufacturing and Creating Jobs in Kenya. The document is a ten-point policy plan aimed at creating 300,000 jobs and doubling manufacturing in five years. According to the document, this will be achieved through two main ways;

(Source: http://www.kam.co.ke/KAM-2016/wp-content/uploads)

  1. The formulation of effective public policies and the regulation for manufacturing competitiveness by doing the following;
  • Creating a business environment that is conducive to manufacturing investment.
  • Enforcing a fiscal regime that supports manufacturing.
  • Making land ownership more affordable and accessible.
  • Securing affordable, reliable and sustainable energy.
  • Expanding access to long-term finance for all types of manufacturing firms.
  • Creating an exports push for manufactured products.
  • Developing worker skills as well as supporting innovation for increased labour productivity.

 

  1. Efficient and effective implementation through;
  • Creating a fit-for-purpose public service.
  • Developing a coordinated value chain approach.
  • Building trust and reciprocity for effective coordination and partnerships.

There is a proposed plan to inclusively target Informal industry or cottage industries. According to the document, there are several manufacturing sub-sectors such as agro-processing, metal works, furniture, and leather and shoe making. Following earlier research that has been carried out on the informal manufacturing sector in Kenya by Deloitte and The World Bank, four sub sectors have been singled out as having the greatest potential for growth and performance. The first is the arts and crafts which consists of homemade artefacts that are a popular product for tourists and residents.

The other strong informal manufacturing sub sector is that of furniture. The furniture market in Kenya stood at approximately $496 million in sales in 2013, whereby East African economies purchase $1.2 billion worth of furniture annually. Jua kali represent more than a third of sales in Kenya ($160 million). The jua kali furniture industry exhibits strong growth and manufactures world class ethnic furniture for niche markets in areas such as Lamu.

The third is the metal works informal manufacturing sector which produces a range of products such as charcoal cooking stoves, buckets, pans, kitchen utensils, wheel barrows, watering cans, gates and grills, and small tools for low-income clients. Products such as industrial sculptures and artworks target higher-income clients. Additionally, a few informal manufacturers produce a limited number of spare parts such as silencers, auto upholstery, and rubber bushings.

The last one is the leather industry under which the informal sector accounts for 10,000 of the 14,000 workers. Kenya is the third-largest livestock holder in Africa, so leather represents a potential area for economic growth and employment. In 2017, the Ministry of Industry Trade and Cooperatives (MITC) committed a KSh 130 million revolving fund for SMEs in the leather industry to build workspaces in all of the country’s 47 counties.

The ten-point plan further points out that despite this potential, there are challenges that the informal sector faces which include access to finance, limited access to land, corruption and labour productivity. With the successful implementation of this document, the informal manufacturing sector stands to immensely benefit from the catalysis of manufacturing in Kenya.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

Analysis of Political Party Manifestos

 

With slightly over one month to the Kenyan elections, the two major political parties released their manifestos for public scrutiny. These are the documents that detail the priority areas as well as proposed plans of action for the country when they get elected into office. Despite the political rhetoric contained therein, I read through the two documents with a view of deciphering the angles that each had taken in relation to the informal economy. This article looks into two areas covered under the informal economy, picking out the most relevant proposals in both manifestos.

(Source: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke)

The ruling coalition has proposed to create and fully implement a robust Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) development and support programme which would formalise the large number of informal businesses and support their growth from micro to small to medium enterprises, and eventually into large firms. They believe that this would catalyse the creation of at least one million jobs and contribute to tax revenues. One of the major sub sectors of informal business that they are targeting is the Jua Kali. They are targeting at least 1 million entrepreneurs in the Jua Kali sector to have become established as formal small or large enterprises by the year 2022. The sector employs 11 million Kenyans, 50% of the country’s workforce.

 

Their counterpart in the opposition promises to unleash the potential of Jua Kali entrepreneurs by establishing at least one industrial park per ward for micro- and small enterprises. They also look to set up workshops where these entrepreneurs can lease machine time, a move that is aimed at giving these entrepreneurs access to machinery and equipment that they cannot individually afford. In order to help MSEs to develop globally competitive products, they plan to establish incubators that will help them break into export markets.

In as far as the agricultural sector is concerned, the opposition coalition has proposed that it will establish a Cooperative Enterprise Development Fund (CEDF) that will invest in agro-processing enterprises jointly with farmers organized as cooperatives as an equity partner. Once the agro-processing enterprise is successful, the CEDF will divest by selling shares to farmers through the cooperatives. On the other hand, the ruling coalition plans to establish a Food Acquisition Programme (FAP) to create demand and stable market prices for products from small-scale farmers who will be encouraged to form cooperatives in maize, wheat and potatoes. Under this programme, they plan to buy 50% of government food requirements from small holder farmers.

There is a myriad of other initiatives that both parties have put across in their manifestos that target micro, small and medium sized enterprises. My concern is that all of these promises look good on paper but will become a challenge when the time to implement them comes. This view is informed by the historical evidence of politicians wooing the voting class just before an election and turning their backs on them as soon as they are elected into office. All in all, the idea of investing in the informal economy is long overdue.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economic Survey 2017

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) released the Economic Survey 2017 which presents an analysis of the key sectors in the Kenyan economy. In relation to the informal economy, the survey only focused on the employment angle of the sector. The rest of data on the informal sector was extracted from the MSME 2016 Survey. Getting comprehensive up to date data on the informal economy is still a big challenge.

(Source: http://www.procurementandlogisticsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/IMG_20170419_121944)

The 2017 survey indicates that the total number of new jobs created in the economy was 832.9 thousand. Of these, 85.6 thousand were in the formal sector while 747.3 thousand were created in the informal sector. The share of new jobs created in the informal economy represents a 5.9 per cent growth from 83 per cent to 89.7 per cent or 13.3 million people. Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants industries continued to absorb the highest number of employees, accounting for 59.7 per cent of total employment, while the manufacturing industry had a share of 20.4 per cent in informal sector employment.

A continual growth of the informal sector can be attributed to factors such as the shrinking availability of formal employment opportunities as well as the resilience of the Kenyan citizens. Informal sector growth in the country is however a problem due to the fact that most jobs in the sector are of substandard quality. This is because most are characterised by low wages, no social benefits as well as poor working conditions such as the lack of protective gear in most labour intensive businesses and operating in areas with insufficient social amenities such as access to water and toilets.

There were a number of statistics on the informal sector that were not highlighted such as an updated position on the key sub sectors. It would be useful to have information on the number of businesses that operate in the sector, as well as the overall contribution made to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This will paint a clearer picture of the sector in a way that can enable policy makers to adequately formulate strategies that would be beneficial in enhancing qualitative growth of this crucial component of the economy.

One of the suggestions on how this can be done is by starting out with a pilot project in one of the counties with a vibrant informal economy whereby data collection focuses beyond sifting through the records at county offices. This will allow for the concentration of efforts towards the conducting of a deeper statistical analysis of each of the sub sectors. Once this has been achieved, it can then be used as a benchmark for conducting a similar program countrywide. The gathered data would provide a clearer way forward when it comes to making informed decisions on how to channel the efforts towards implementing a sustainable plan that deals with the informal sector.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

Elections 2017

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(Source: https://fb.onthe.io/0fgjhs40c2bj0eh1c.2e0c22f6.jpg )

 

Kenya will be holding its elections this year. As we approach the period, the political atmosphere in the country usually gets highly charged with the various candidates holding meetings and rallies. The business environment has often taken a beating during this period due to the uncertainty that looms. Despite this challenge, there are businesses in the informal sector that can take advantage of this scenario and use it to grow their operations.

Opportunities await those that are involved in the printing and catering businesses. During the campaign period, candidates like to be visible. Posters, flyers, pamphlets, t- shirts and caps are some of the items that they use to push their messages across to a wider audience. Those businesses that are involved in these ventures stand to make attractive profits given the political interest in the various levels of county representation. Also, there will be a number of rallies and meetings that will require the services of caterers who provide tents and chairs as well as food and beverages.

Candidates that are vying for various seats need to have a strategy that addresses the informal economy agenda as these constitute a majority of the voting population. Those that are engaged in the informal economy mainly run micro and small businesses that are considered as a means of trying to escape from the vicious cycle of poverty. It would be a positive move to have this as a strategy in their campaign manifestos for it would appeal to a broader range of the electorate.

The youth are a demographic group that are usually targeted by politicians to gain popularity and help in the running of campaigns. In some cases they are misused to cause chaos and even enlisted to join militia groups. Given the high levels of unemployment among this group, they should demand a better deal from political candidates by way of the latter providing viable solutions that will see them positively engaged in a manner that benefits them.

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(Source: http://gdb.voanews.com/EF458178-C136-4E97-90C0-AB2C939A189B_mw1024_s_n.jpg)

 

The down side to elections in the country is the disruption of businesses as we get closer to the election date for it is during this period that most business operations temporarily stall or even shut down. The charged political atmosphere usually comes with tribal connotations that see the displacement of people who are not indigenous to a particular region. The National Cohesion and Integration Commission should come down hard on aspirants that use this sort of political speak as a means of gaining popularity as it is a hindrance to the growth and sustenance of businesses.

The time is way overdue for the electorate to lean towards candidates that advocate for issue-based policies as this is the only way that will ensure the leadership that is voted in works to improve the social and economic environment in the country. Choosing tribal affiliations and outfits is an outdated principle that only serves to divide our nation further. As we vote in the next cycle of leadership, let us choose wisely.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst 

Improvements to aim for in 2017

(Source: http://www.africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Female-Vendor.jpg )

Informal businesses have often been perceived in a negative light. They are seen to be high risk ventures, a nuisance to formal enterprises and government as well as being of little assistance to the growth and development agenda of most nations. This is due to the fact that most of them have haphazard modes of operation and a majority are not registered and hence do not pay taxes. This sector has however registered rapid growth over recent years. In Kenya for example about 82% of those employed are engaged in informal businesses. The high levels of poverty has exacerbated this growth as a majority of people seek to make a living where jobs are hard to come by.

There are a wide range of issues that, if addressed, will see most of these businesses develop to a level where they will be even more positive contributors to the economy. A place to start would be offering financial literacy programs for those that operate these businesses. Due to the fact that a majority of them do not keep records of their day to day operations, it becomes difficult for financial institutions to offer any assistance because there is no clear basis from which performance can be tracked. The importance of basic skills like book keeping needs to be emphasized when developing capacity building programs for the sector.

Access to health facilities for informal workers is another area that can improved. In my experience while visiting various informal businesses around the country, most business operators have had to leave their work unattended as they try to seek medical attention whenever they fall sick. Most work under deplorable conditions without the required protective gear. The Kenyan government through the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) has launched a program that seeks to increase the number of informal workers who can access quality healthcare. The program aims to recruit 12 million Kenyans under a cover that sees them pay a monthly contribution of between Kshs 150 to Kshs 500 depending on their income status. This is a step in the right direction that needs to be replicated.

While interacting with businesses in the sector, a major hurdle that has consistently come up is the difficulty they face when trying to market their goods and services. Most do not have the skills required to widen their scope of customers. This is an area that should be considered by those developing capacity building programs for the sector. Another barrier has been the allocation of spaces they are given to operate their businesses. Most of these are in areas that potential customers cannot easily access and are often unattended to by those that collect revenue from them in terms of garbage collection. This considerably compromises the ability of the informal sector to attract clients and customers to their business.

Although information on those engaged in the informal economy is hard to come by, my experience indicates that the sector is ready for engagement; it is critical we tap into this goodwill. However, note that the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) released the Micro Small and Medium Enterprise survey in 2016. In as much as this is a move to be applauded, most of the players in the informal sector that I interviewed over the past few months feel that the report was inconclusive as it excluded a huge percentage of micro businesses. A proper census will need to be carried out to provide a clearer picture of where the sector stands. This will go a long way in better informing policy makers and those that would like to engage with the sector.

In conclusion, these interventions can be best leveraged through bodies such as the Micro and Small Enterprises Authority (MSEA), who have established a credible network around the country as well as various organizations and associations that work with the informal sector at the county level.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst 

Informal Business Dynamics

Image result for informal economy curio

(Source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwj68cTyt4XRAhXGHxoKHeNqBZcQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hospitalitynet.org%2Fnews%2F4077380.html&psig=AFQjCNGOkphPFmyXwdD6-rBtONmbPu7a8w&ust=1482414841601897)

One of the key areas of focus when setting up a business is knowing who your customers are. Targeting the right type of clientele is one of the pillars upon which the success of a business is based. With this in mind, it is important for a start-up business to know beforehand what their niche market is so as to channel its resources in the right manner. Aspects like getting the right location as well as having the right information on the profiles of customers within ones area of operation are key factors that dictate whether a business will succeed or fail. This is no different for informal businesses.

This aspect came out clearly during a recent visit to Nanyuki, a town in Laikipia County – Kenya, while interviewing different businesses in the informal sector. Victor Gaita, the chairman of the Nanyuki Municipality Jua Kali Association which has a membership of 150 businesses, pointed out some factors that determined the levels to which businesses within the association generated income. The first was that despite the fact that some of the craftsmen had the requisite skills to make high quality furniture like beds that would cost Kshs 35,000, they seldom did because these sold much slower than those that cost Kshs 4,000. The latter cost appealed to the low income clientele who frequent their premises.

Another factor that determined the level to which members generated income was their location. Those that operated from residential areas had higher returns than those that are located in the market places. This is due to two factors. The first is that those in the residential areas were not frequently visited by the county officials, which reduced the amount of bribes that they had to pay. This angle has a downside to it, in that due to the fact that the county officials do not frequent the residential areas, these businesses get away with not having to pay most taxes that are required of them, which gives them an unfair competitive advantage.

The other factor is that the cleanliness of the environment under which they operate determines the type of clientele that will visit their business premises. Those that are located in the market places often have to deal with the inefficient service provision by the county government when it comes to garbage collection. They are also congested in their working spaces, something that doesn’t encourage clients to visit their premises. Those in the residential areas operate in clean and spacious environments hence end up attracting higher end clients.

Phyllis Micheni is the chair of Jambo Kenya Women Group which is an association that is comprised of 15 members. Their core business is the manufacturing and selling of curios that include wood crafts, jewellery, hand woven carpets and African themed clothing. She noted that most of their clients were mainly tourists and locals that have a higher income dispensation due to the quality of their products and costs of production. Their prices were too high for the local clientele. Their main challenge was marketing their products and are thus looking into ways in which they can upscale their vending points in areas frequented by tourists.

 

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst