Facilitating Access to Credit for Small Business  

Last week, the World Bank released the Kenya Economic Update in which they look into ways in which credit to the private sector can be revived in a bid to accelerate growth in the economy. The Kenyan economy is projected to rebound and reach 5.8% of GDP in 2019. In order for this trajectory to be attained, one of the risks that have to be addressed is the need to jumpstart the recovery of credit growth to the private sector; particularly to Micro, Small and Medium sized Enterprises (MSMEs) and households. During the launch of the report, the Central Bank of Kenya Governor, Patrick Njoroge noted that the resilience of the Kenyan economy is largely attributed to its strong and vibrant private sector, whose backbone is MSMEs.

(Source: http://www.worldbank.org)

The document points out the fact that although the interest rate cap was meant to reduce the cost of credit, thereby making credit accessible to a wider range of borrowers, after a year of implementation the decline in credit growth to the private sector has continued with a couple of unintended negative consequences. One of these is that banks have shifted lending to corporate clients and government at the expense of small and medium sized enterprises and personal household loans. While the interest rate cap policy was an attempt to make credit less costly and therefore more accessible to borrowers, this policy objective has not been achieved. There has been a significant credit rationing to small and medium enterprises and for unsecured personal loans, while lending to the government and lower risk large corporates has increased.

It is interesting to note that the shift in the targeting of bank loan clients away from smaller and riskier borrowers is particularly impactful in Kenya, where riskier SME and micro borrowers make up roughly 80% of all borrowers. Smaller banks, who do not have a large corporate client base, are forced to maintain their portfolios in SME and consumer lending, but have stopped lending to new and unknown customers. The introduction of the rate cap has thus led to a situation whereby there has been a significant decrease in the disbursement of consumer and unsecured loans.

One of the recommendations that are presented in as far as dealing with the shrinking level of loan disbursement is that of recalibrating the current credit reporting system through which banks will be in a better position when it comes to making decisions on loans to risky borrowers, as opposed to the blanket one-size-fits-all approach that is currently being used. They will thus be able to offer financing that is priced per the risk of the borrower. To this end, in order to strengthen credit reporting in Kenya, the CBK is already working with commercial banks on increasing the quality of their consumer data and to include credit reporting data in lending decisions.

Another measure that can be taken to this effect is improving on the overall credit reference bureau data and products. Further, other lenders should be supported to also participate in the credit reporting system, such as SACCOs and microfinance institutions. The implementation of such reforms, coupled with a well-functioning credit bureau, will significantly improve pricing transparency among banks and broadly lower interest rates.

The document states that the goal of accommodating credit worthy borrowers with a higher risk profile, including personal unsecured loans and loans to SMEs calls for a more flexible pricing regime that allows banks to competitively determine loan prices. In order for this to be achieved there needs to be improvements in the institutional environment to prohibit predatory lending, through stronger consumer protections. For example, establishing a consumer protection bureau, could equip borrowers with greater bargaining power with banks and other lenders, promote more transparent pricing practices and increase financial literacy as well as allow for more effective dispute mechanisms.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

 

 

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The Kenyan Government’s Priorities for the Informal Sector

It is a welcome development to see that the prolonged electioneering period has come to an end, for it was characterised by the slow down and even stagnation of certain businesses that has had a negative effect to the economy. As the new administration comes into office, it is interesting to note that it has prioritised aspects of the informal sector in its agenda. These are articulated in their campaign manifesto, some of which were prioritised by the president during his inauguration speech.

(Source: https://i0.wp.com/www.dhahabu.co.ke)

In their manifesto, the current administration aimed to create and fully implement a robust Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SME) development and support programme which would formalise the large number of informal businesses and support their growth from micro to small to medium sized enterprises, and eventually into large firms. By doing so, they aim at catalysing the creation of at least one million jobs and consequently contributing to tax revenues.

The two main demographic groups that characterise the informal sector are women and youth. Between 2013 and 2016, 12,000 Micro, Small and Medium sized Enterprises (MSMEs) have received training in entrepreneurship and management. The manifesto states that a total of Ksh25bn has been transferred to MSMEs through Youth, Uwezo and Women enterprise funds providing support to close to 15 million people who have been enabled to set up businesses. The plan to establish the Biashara Bank by merging the Micro and Small Enterprises Authority, the Youth Enterprises Development Fund, the Women Enterprises Fund and the Uwezo Fund as a means to coordinating the delivery of affordable financing and support for business development is a move that will enhance the focus on the lack of capital as an impediment to the establishment, growth and development of informal businesses. Notably, through the Women Enterprise Fund, women have demonstrated that they are a highly bankable and reliable borrower with a repayment rate of 92%.

Further, providing low interests loans to youth owned enterprises to enable them to grow their businesses has seen an increase from Ksh4.9bn accessed by 407,793 young people in 2006, to Ksh11.8bn disbursed to 893,438 young people in 2013 under the Youth Enterprise Development Fund. As alluded to above, coordinated efforts towards targeting the relevant demographic groups will fine tune the government’s focus. This should include policies and systems that track the growth and performance of businesses that receive funding with a view of informing the direction to be taken during capacity building initiatives.

The manifesto points out the fact that about 80% of the Kenyan population relies on agriculture for employment and livelihood, and that the sector contributes approximately 27% to GDP, about 40% of government revenue and more than 60% of the total export revenue for the country. The plan to establish the Food Acquisition Programme (FAP) that is aimed at creating market demand and stabilising prices for products from small-scale farmers. Under this programme, the government will buy 50% of it’s food requirements from small holder farmers. The fact that Kenya is a major agricultural exporter and that only 16% of all exported agricultural output is processed, the move by the President to target the creation of 1,000 Small and Medium sized Enterprises in agro-processing is a welcome move.

Efforts to construct the Kenya Leather Park in Machakos for over 7,000 SMEs, the setting up of the Leather Cluster Common Manufacturing Facility in Kariokor as well as increasing the number of Export Processing Zones (EPZs) during their previous term is a step in the right direction. However, to ensure sustained growth of these industries will require that Kenya fine tunes its approach towards agriculture as a base requirement for the setting up of light manufacturing. Key to this is setting up collection points for hides at abattoirs, making beef farmers and pastoralists aware of the right cows to breed for higher quality hides, increasing the productivity per acre for agricultural produce as well as setting up sufficient storage facilities that minimise post-harvest wastage.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

 

 

Comparative Analysis of Informal Economy in Nigeria and Kenya

The Informal Sector in Nigeria and its Impact on Development is a book by Stephanie Itimi which is based on research on the informal sector in Nigeria. It focuses on three key areas namely employment, gender equality and tax evasion. Employment is looked at from the angle of the effect that the informal sector has on job creation. Gender equality merges with employment and is looked into by examining the role that the latter plays in empowering women financially. The author also provides an analysis of the complex relationship between the informal sector and the principle of tax evasion. This article aims at providing a comparative analysis of the informal sector in Nigeria and Kenya, based on the findings of the book, as well as those from research conducted on the Kenyan informal sector.

(Source: https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com)

In Nigeria, the informal sector accounts an estimate of 70% of the total industrial employment. The country has the largest informal sector on the continent, which is enhanced by its population size as well as high levels of poverty. The Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) states that the informal sector creates 25,000 to 35,000 jobs each year. However, although this is highlights the job creation role of the informal sector, the author argues that with a country of 153.9 million people, the impact of the informal sector on unemployment is quite insignificant.

The Kenya Economic Survey 2017 indicates that the total number of new jobs created in the economy was 832.9 thousand. Of these, 85.6 thousand were in the formal sector while 747.3 thousand were created in the informal sector. The share of new jobs created in the informal economy represents a 5.9% growth from 83% recorded the previous year to 89.7%, or 13.3 million people. Nigeria outweighs Kenya’s working population by 66.33 million, however the significant gap is not reflected in the differences in the number of people in the informal sector between Nigeria and Kenya. This is due to Kenya having 89.7% of its working population in the informal sector, while Nigeria has only 34.6% of its working population in the informal sector.

In her book, Stephanie points out that the percentage of women in the informal sector of any economy is high, especially in developing and transition economies by referencing an ILO report which found that 46% of the informal sector in urban Nigeria was dominated by women. She states that the informal sector is seen as a major source of employment for women due to its suitability to their needs. The Micro Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Report 2016, released by the Kenya national Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), indicates that 32.2% of licenced establishments were owned by women, while 60.7% of unlicenced establishments were also owned by women. According to Bitange Ndemo, an associate professor at the University of Nairobi, these statistics mirror a global trend whereby women are over represented in the informal economy; a factor that is largely driven by survival, rather than the exploitation of an entrepreneurial opportunity. In terms of financing informal business, he argues that the problem faced is more of the cost of finance rather than it’s access.

On tax evasion as regards informality in Nigeria, the author notes that research has shown that there is a positive correlation between a rise in taxation and a rise in tax evasion, concluding it as a motivational factor for people migrating from the formal to the informal sector. However, factors such as an increase in tax evasion punishments such as heavy fines and prison sentences reduced the likelihood of people participating in the informal sector. Informal Sector and Taxation in Kenya is a publication by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) that stresses the significance role that the informal sector can play in the quest to expand the tax base, noting that the intention of bringing the informal sector into the tax net is to facilitate the transition of these businesses to the formal sector and reduce barriers for all businesses. The paper shows that by extending the tax net to the informal sector, for example in the year 2008, the Kenyan government could have increased the tax base by approximately 7.66 percentage points, translating to revenue worth Kshs.79.3 billion.

In conclusion, as is the case in as far as data on the informal sector is concerned, the author indicates that one of the biggest impediments encountered during her research is its limitation which involved the omission of data in some years and unavailability of up to date research. To this end, she proposes that primary research should be conducted in to have a more up to date and realistic perspective on the topic. The part the informal sector plays in enhancing gender equality is restricted on just income, as female participants are able to easily obtain employment in the informal sector and adapt their job rule to their social and culture gender obligations. Also, government agencies should move from harsh approaches such as destroying informal market areas and increasing tax evasion punishments to more liberal approaches that empowers the activities of the informal sector through the provision of a conducive environment and inclusive policies which enhances productivity within the sector and enables taxation.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

How Global Capital Incentivises Informality

The distinction between the formal and informal sector is a concept that is sometimes difficult to differentiate due to the fluid nature of their interactions. The multiple definitions of the informal sector have often not been precise, especially whenever it is looked at in relation to the formal economy, and not as a distinct entity.  It is with this in mind that the authors of the research paper “Informal Sector Dynamics and its Role in the Capital Accumulation Process” interestingly point out that the central meaning and relevance of this phenomenon of informality as a sector or workforce become clear only when considered in the light of the global capital accumulation process.

A significant part of the informal sector in the contemporary world is essentially an outgrowth of the formal economy in more ways than one. The activities in the informal sector are directly linked to and often constitute an essential part of the processes of production, exchange and accumulation in the capitalist economy both at the national and, increasingly, at global levels. In certain cases, the sector consists of industries that originated from basic units of production that are cemented in simple manufacturing processes and have evolved into factory forms with informal production and labour processes. It is common knowledge that in today’s world, this sector is an essential part of the global commodity chains.

https://i2.wp.com/www.queensu.ca/innovationcentre/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.qicwww/files/images/shutterstock_715692881_REV-950x405.jpg

(Source:http://www.queensu.ca)

What is at the core in the interaction and dynamics between the two sectors is a range of flexibilities that can be ascribed to the informal sector or processes. In the current production and distribution networks, there is an array of operations that can be observed. These informal processes are visibly notable in global commodity chains whereby important stages of production and supply are located in third world countries. Factors that are common in informal circles such as the lack of a regulatory environment, the flexibility or absence of labour contracts and the ability to stretch hours of operation at ease are adopted by formal firms when they subcontract informal firms to perform some of their production and distribution jobs. It is this flexibility and managing to keep transaction and labour costs to the minimum, which is at the core of the dynamics of small enterprises that allows them to survive and provides them the competitive edge. This advantage is made use of by large multinationals in their pursuit of global profits.

As per the document, another way in which formal firms create informality is through their restructuring processes. This is done in whereby the formal firm downsizes its labour force and thus forcing people into the informal sector as a means of survival and source of livelihood. There are two distinct processes in which informalisation of employment takes place in formal sector firms. One is to employ labour without any permanent wage or employment contract or provide any employment benefit. The other is to contract out operations that were earlier performed by employees of the firm to smaller or ‘specialised’ enterprises. A particular form of this is to contract out operations to labour contractors or suppliers, where even if particular employees are regularly working in the principal firm, they are not considered the employees of the principal firm and are therefore denied any rights, which they would have otherwise got. The suppliers of such workers are often informal sector enterprises.

It is vital for policy makers and parties that are involved in drafting strategy to have a clear understanding of the definition of the informality as a means to getting to its root causes in a way that will enhance their engagement processes with the sector. This will assist them in moving away from instances where they rely on traditional definitions of the sector that have since evolved and thus be more specific in their goals for it.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

Impact Investing in Informal Enterprises

Impact investments are investments made into companies, organizations and funds with the intention to generate social and environmental impact alongside a financial return. The Global Impact Investment Network (GIIN) states that this sort of investment provides capital to address the world’s pressing challenges in sectors such as microfinance, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, conservation and affordable and accessible basic services such as housing, healthcare and education. The aspect of this form of investment that makes it stand out from other vehicles of investment is the fact that it is aimed at generating positive impact beyond financial return. In this sense, it is a viable solution to the sustainable growth and development of micro, small and medium sized enterprises. It is a tool that can be used to provide patient capital to entrepreneurs, more so if it is blended with grants.

(Source: http://www.blog.kpmgafrica.com)

A study that was conducted in West Africa by Dalberg found that impact investments are primarily made by private equity and venture capital funds, Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs), foundations and institutional investors. “Impact investing in West Africa” noted that the needs of individual enterprises varied depending on factors such as their business model, size and maturity stage as well as human resource capacity. Beyond financing needs, many enterprises require business development services in a way that enables them to develop their ideas and create well managed, financially sustainable operations.

Some of the challenges that stand in the way of achieving the goal of developing sustainable business ventures in as far as engagement with impact investing is concerned include a lack of education, skills and difficulty in accessing information among the entrepreneurs that are required to turn their ideas into bankable projects. Also, the lack of awareness of the actual implications of engaging impact investors prevents many businesses from accepting this type of capital. This is due to the fact that owners of small and medium sized enterprises fear losing control of their businesses. Further, the study noted that the lack of incentives to convert from informal to formal business structures was a hindrance for impact investors in as far as engaging the informal sector in West Africa goes. The high costs that are linked to business formalization which include licences, taxes and other operating costs discourage most informal businesses from making the transition to formality.

The report put forward some ways in which the above challenges can be mitigated for an enhanced and more proactive engagement with impact investment. These include the need for a broader range of flexible products to address the gap for businesses with smaller financing needs. This is particularly necessary for new enterprises where the entrepreneurs’ funding needs are too small for traditional debt or equity financing. In this sense, they propose angel financing or royalty-based debt with manageable levels of interest as well as supporting business development services.

The other solution highlights the need for investors to adapt their investment practices to the local climate. By being more flexible in this manner, they will be in a better position to change their investment criteria, thus opening up their business to a large number of potentially profitable deals. This will also place local entrepreneurs in a position where they can access much needed capital to enhance their business ventures. This sort of engagement will support the growth of informal businesses to formal businesses and further assist them to transition into larger private equity and traditional commercial bank investments.

Last but not least is the proposal to build networks and awareness beyond impact investors to encompass business support organisations, relevant government bodies and development partners with the intention of increasing awareness of existing definitions of impact investing. Other goals of these networks should be to increase the awareness of the benefits of venture philanthropy among grant-making organizations, increase the understanding of equity investments among business owners and focus outreach efforts towards high net worth individuals and highly-educated Africans in the diaspora.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

The African Retail Market

According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the African retail market is characterised by approximately 90% of transactions occurring through informal channels. This points to the existence of an opportunity for the increased establishment of formal retail presence to capture larger portions of this market share. Tapping into markets that are dominated by the informal economy presents formal retailers with a key to unlocking the potential of the African market in as far as leveraging the customer base presented by the population therein. However, hurdles such as the diverse consumer mix, low levels of established distribution networks, infrastructure constraints and political and economic uncertainties are some of the challenges that big formal retail chains have to contend with when setting up in-country operations.

(Source: https://thisisafrica.me)

The “African Powers Of Retailing Report 2015” published by Deloitte tracks the progress of the top African retail performers on the continent. While the top 25 retailers have a limited operational presence in Africa, operating in 21 out of 54 countries on the continent, other countries, such as Algeria, Sudan and Ethiopia, are among the top 10 countries by retail market size but have no listed African Retailer present. Nigeria is the largest retail market in Africa with a retail size of US$122.9 billion as of 2013. However, East Africa – particularly Kenya – is still being identified as the next market for major South African players. Apart from Kenya’s attractive GDP of US$56.1 billion at the time this report was published, it has 25-30% formal retail compared to 60% in South Africa.

It is worthy to note that Nigeria’s retail market is largely fragmented, with the top 6 retailers accounting for barely 2% of sales and 98% of Nigerians shopping in small, local and informal outlets. The importance of the informal economy in Africa cannot be overlooked considering the fact that small, local and informal retail transactions account for 96% in Ghana and 98% in Nigeria and Cameroon. Even in Kenya, the vast consumer base in rural areas still shops at informal outlets, which accounts for approximately 70% of retail shopping. Zimbabwe also has a fragmented retail market and is seeing a recent upsurge in small “tuck shops”.

It further states that as the African economy continues to improve and expand, it is likely that groceries will be a key driver of industry growth across the continent’s retailing industry. The approach that retail multinationals in search of developing their presence in Africa have used in a quest to set up operations in the African retail market is that of acquisitions of local companies or directly establishing their retail stores in-country. How increased access to the informal sector will play out as retailers compete for share of wallet beyond the main urban centres remains to be seen.

Given the above statistics, an avenue which would be worth considering for formal retail multinationals is that of incorporating an informal market operational strategy into their business models. Developing deliberate linkages with this sector of the economy will be a huge game changer and bolster business for both sides of the equation.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

Lessons from China’s Economic Policy

Over the years, China has managed to turn around its economy by instituting certain reforms which have seen the country’s economy grow exponentially during the last 60 years into a global economic powerhouse. Most of these were done by recalibrating how they interacted with the informal sector in their country. The reforms first took shape in the agriculture sector with the household responsibility system (HRS) replacing the people’s commune system. Under this system, individual households were instituted as the basic unit of farm operation, as opposed to a collective team of 20 to 30 households in the past. The HRS gave individual households autonomy over production and farmers were given incentives to increase output.

(Source: http://media.philstar.com/images/the-philippine-star/business )

A study carried out by the Lancaster University Management School indicates that Between 1978 and 1984, China’s average annual growth rate of agriculture was 7.7%, after the introduction of the household responsibility system. The significant improvement in agriculture helped the country to release labour from land to industry and service sectors. This labour reallocation process was necessary as China’s agriculture was characterised by an egalitarian system of distribution of cultivated land with more than 200 million rural households, each cultivating less than 0.55 hectares. With the improvement in productivity in the agricultural sector, there was no need for a large number of people to stay on land. Agricultural employment as a share of labour force fell from more than 70% in 1978 to 60% in 1990 and 35% in 2011. The release of such a large number of economically active population from land hugely helped China’s development of the labour-intensive, low-skilled manufacturing sector.

In addition to the introduction of the HRS, China successfully re-introduced marketization. In implementing agricultural reforms, China first tried a dual-track approach. Under this approach, farmers were required to deliver a portion of their output to the state and allowed to sell the rest of the output on the free-market. With the newly earned profits, farmers set up or pulled resources into town and village owned enterprises (TVEs). These are communal organizations managed by managers on a contractual basis.

Town and village owned enterprise operate outside of the Chinese government’s apparatus and were highly market-oriented. Even though they did not enjoy preferential government treatment, they were also not subject to widespread state regulation. The study further notes that between 1979 and 1991, TVEs grew at an average rate of 25.3% in comparison to that of state owned enterprises which grew at 8.4%. Though TVEs were not private firms, since they were often owned by local governments or local communes rather than solely by private owners, they cultivated an internal culture of competition in the Chinese economy which helped stimulate efficiency of the state‐owned enterprises. It is worthy to note that TVEs were the major export drivers of China’s impressive export growth. For example, in 1999, the value of TVE exports of US$94 billion accounted for 48% of China’s total exports. Much of these were labour‐intensive products involving simple production techniques.

Another aspect that accelerated China’s growth and economic success can be attributed to privatisation. The study notes that the ownership structure of private firms was not properly defined until 1988. Private firms only became an integral part of the Chinese economy in 1997 and had their legal status established in 1998. The rapid growth of the private sector began with the introduction of the policy whereby the government not only lowered entry barriers in most sectors, but also pursued a policy of “grasping the big, and letting go of the small”. This meant that State Owned Enterprises were to only be kept in “strategic sectors” whereas small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) were either privatised or their ownership transferred from the central government to local governments.

Lastly, the study shows that China’s development in manufacturing has also benefited from inward foreign direct investment (FDI) whereby the early years of China’s history of inward FDI was particularly dominated by the Chinese diaspora. Chinese diaspora-invested firms cooperated with TVEs and other indigenous Chinese firms and introduced them to international markets as well as freed them from domestic market constraints. In this sense, the diaspora-invested firms also helped indigenous Chinese firms to exploit the country’s comparative advantage in cheap labour and to translate its comparative advantage into international competitiveness.

Kenya is a country whereby about 75% of the population rely on agriculture for employment and livelihood. Outside agriculture, a vast majority of its citizens are employed in the informal economy, accounting for 90% of the employment demographic. The route taken by China is one which the country can borrow a leaf from when looking towards ways in which it can transform and grow its economy through agriculture and manufacturing.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.