Informality In Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa

The latest Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa is a survey conducted and released twice a year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latest was made public in April 2017 and highlights the importance of the informal economy as being a key component of most economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, contributing between 25 and 65 percent of GDP and accounting for up to 90% of jobs outside agriculture. This includes household enterprises that are not formally registered.

(Source: https://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites)

Estimation of the size of the informal economy is done by looking at indicators such as the tax burden, institutional development and unemployment rates amongst other factors. According to the paper, a larger tax burden is likely to encourage more economic activity to remain in the informal economy. The level of institutional development is another indicator whereby the lack of respect for the law encourages informal activity. Higher unemployment rates are an indicator of poorly functioning labour markets with labour not being absorbed into the formal sector.

The IMF indicates that the average share of informality in Sub-Saharan Africa reached almost 38% of GDP during 2010 – 2014. This is surpassed only by Latin America and the Caribbean at 40% of GDP and compares with 34% of GDP in South Asia, and 23% of GDP in Europe. In member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the informal sector is estimated to account for 17% of GDP. Their findings suggest that informality seems to fall with the level of income, likely reflecting higher government capacity and better incentives towards formality in higher income economies.

In terms of the experience of its populations as entrepreneurs, Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of early stage entrepreneurial activity. However, about a third of the new entrepreneurs in the region report that they chose to be entrepreneurs out of necessity. Despite this, the region has the most positive attitude towards entrepreneurship. The policy change proposed in this regard is to create an environment in which small firms in both formal and informal sectors can thrive and grow, one that is supportive of SMEs.

As far as informality and productivity is concerned, high levels of informality in the informal sector have significant implications on productivity. This in turn negatively impacts economic performance. The paper draws certain conclusions from World Bank Enterprise Surveys which indicate that the productivity levels of informal firms are significantly lower than those of formal firms. On average, the productivity of informal firms is only 25% of small formal firms and 19% of medium sized formal firms, based on real output per employee. This reflects a lower level of physical capital and skill levels of informal workers.

In regard to tax policy, the document proposes that relatively high VAT thresholds are recommended for developing countries, with licences and fees for businesses below the VAT threshold. Such a move would reduce the number of small businesses that are discouraged from registering with the tax administration. As a result, the increased growth and transition into formality would allow small enterprises to grow to a size above the tax threshold, generating higher fiscal revenue. The benefit for formalisation would be better access to finance and public services, which would exceed the tax cost.

Moving forward, countries in the region need to focus on developing strategies that will not only foster and support the positive growth of informal sector activities, but also go further to incentivise their graduation into the formal sector. The importance of capacity building initiatives in the areas of technical, financial and management skills as well as those that are centred around technology adoption as a means to increasing their productivity cannot be overlooked if this is to achieved.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

 

 

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Lessons from Hernando De Soto on the Informal Economy

Hernando De Soto’s Theory on the informal economy looks at the reason as to why capitalism is a system that cannot work in developing countries. The theory explains why capitalism has succeeded in particular western countries and failed in other parts of the world. As he aptly puts it, the major stumbling block that keeps the rest of the world from benefiting from capitalism is its inability to produce capital.

(Source: https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com)

He further adds that in these areas where poverty is prevalent, most of the poor possess the necessary assets to produce capital. The problem in place is that these resources are held in defective forms in terms of a lack of proper documentation, a lack of property rights and basically no form of formal representation hence the reason why they cannot be turned into capital. In this sense, these assets can only be traded in informal circles.

Further, seeing as the broader definition of the informal economy encompasses unregulated economic activities in an environment in which similar ones are regulated, businesses in the informal economy often feel comfortable operating outside the official government regulatory framework. This makes them susceptible to a myriad of risks from which they cannot gain legal protection.

According to De Soto, a country with any proportion of informal economy will never have reliable macroeconomic figures. This is due to the fact that informal economy systems lead to a strong preference of using cash while carrying out transactions. It gives birth to a situation whereby the influence of informal activities on an economy can only be measured by indirect means with a long information delay. This is true in as far as getting data on the informal economy goes. A good example is that of the Micro Small and Medium Sized Enterprises 2016 Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics which is an estimated projection of the informal economic space in the country. It was compiled using official data that was available on the sector, leaving out a lot of small and micro businesses in their analysis.

Strategic efforts aimed at strengthening informal businesses in a way that they gradually grow from micro, small and medium enterprises into formidable formal enterprises should focus on fixing the systemic legal and policy issues that force these businesses to operate outside the legal frameworks. By doing this, we will be building a society where wealth creation is an aspect that is achieved and felt across the different levels of the socio-economic demographic.

In an interview with McKinsey & Company, a management consulting firm, De Soto demonstrates the relationship between the informal economy and poverty in the following words, “It is very simple if you are poor in a Third World country. If you don’t make an income in the first month, you are dead in the second month. So, it is very hard to be unemployed in a Third World country, because life takes place on another level. The sign of progress that I would like to see is that the body politic basically recognizes that the poor are an enterprising poor. They are not the problem, but the solution”

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

An Overview of the Informal Sector

The informal economy is characterised as micro and small businesses whose main reason for being established is that they offer an escape route from the tough economic conditions under which the entrepreneurs live. During the past decade, the sector’s growth has mainly been propelled by the shrinking availability of formal employment opportunities. This limited access to formal employment causes most of them to venture into alternative forms of self-employment as a means to making ends meet. As a result, there has been a change in the way people perceive the informal as being traditionally one that was the preserve of those who had attained a basic level of education. There has been a gradual shift in its perception whereby it was fondly referred to as the ‘Jua Kali’ sector, towards one which presents itself as an option for those locked out of formal employment opportunities.

(Source: https://cdn.mg.co.za/crop/content/images)

The Micro Small and Medium sized Enterprises (MSME) Survey 2016, a report released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics established that there were about 1.56 million licensed MSMEs and 5.85 million unlicensed businesses. The findings of the survey also show that total number of persons engaged in the sector was approximately 14.9 million Kenyans. Further, the Kenya Economic Survey 2017 indicates that the number of new jobs created in the economy was 832.9 thousand. Of these, 85.6 thousand were in the formal sector while 747.3 thousand were in the informal sector. The share of jobs in the informal sector represents a 5.9 percent growth from 83 percent in the previous year to 89.7 percent, or 13.3 million people. The problem is that employment in the informal sector is characterised by numerous low quality jobs.

Some of the challenges that informal businesses face include low capacity in as far as financial and technical skills are concerned. This makes it difficult for them to access financial collateral from financing institutions and produce materials that are not standardised. Poor and substandard physical working environments as well as inadequate protective gear means that they are less advantaged when it comes to attracting customers to their establishments and are exposed to health hazards. Limited access to market opportunities is another hurdle that those engaged in informal businesses have to contend with.

The Rockerfeller Foundation puts the number of informal workers who live in extreme poverty around the world at 700 million people, contributing to their vulnerability to poor health. Most informal workers have few resources, which makes accessing health care a challenge as it requires leaving work, which reduces their income and adds to health care expenses. As alluded to above, some of the common problems that Informal workers face include poor working conditions which puts them at a high risk of getting injuries. Most employees in informal establishments have no sick time which accentuates their job insecurity, and a majority of them do not have health or social protection.

Another important element of the informal economy is small scale farming. There needs to be a more proactive approach geared towards making it a formidable employer as opportunities for growth in this area are immense. Making farming inputs competitively cheaper, as well as capacity development through the provision of access to technical services as is in the case of agricultural extension officers will go a long way in ensuring that small scale farmers attain higher quality yields. Another area that would be worth considering is that of supporting small holder out-grower enterprises that are in a dependent, managed relationship with an exporter. These include farmers who do not own or control the land they farm or the commodity they produce as they produce relatively small volumes on relatively small plots of land. A good example in this case is that of French beans farmers who sell their produce to horticultural export companies. This move will go a long way in improving product quality that will enhance the competitiveness of Kenyan produce in the export markets thus ensuring a sustainable and equitable growth in that sector.

 

An angle that clearly presents itself as far as the rapid growth of the informal economy is concerned is that of a focus on making the sector a formidable employer by raising the quality of its employment. This can be achieved by changing the societal stereotypes whereby students who pursue vocational training are seen to do so as a second option after failing to secure university admission. The role that tertiary institutions such as polytechnics play requires a keener rethinking in as far as their significance to the provision of a strategically skilled workforce for our budding industries in the informal economy goes. Also, training in financial skills is another key factor in building up these businesses in a way that they will be well equipped to manage their growth. By developing a culture of documenting financial dealings, informal businesses will be better placed to access loans and grants from financial institutions. Further, more can be done to make it easier for informal workers to access affordable healthcare.

There is increased recognition that much of the informal economy today is linked to the formal economy and contributes to the overall economy; and that supporting the working poor in the informal economy is a key pathway to reducing poverty and inequality. To maintain sustainable growth in this sector, there needs to be flexibility in the way government operates so as to accommodate and support a hugely untapped taxable avenue. Key issues that would have to be looked into revolve around the formalization and recognition of their business operations. That being said, given the proper support and plan, the informal sector in our economy will provide an avenue to the growth and development of indigenous industries.

 

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

Analysis of Political Party Manifestos

 

With slightly over one month to the Kenyan elections, the two major political parties released their manifestos for public scrutiny. These are the documents that detail the priority areas as well as proposed plans of action for the country when they get elected into office. Despite the political rhetoric contained therein, I read through the two documents with a view of deciphering the angles that each had taken in relation to the informal economy. This article looks into two areas covered under the informal economy, picking out the most relevant proposals in both manifestos.

(Source: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke)

The ruling coalition has proposed to create and fully implement a robust Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) development and support programme which would formalise the large number of informal businesses and support their growth from micro to small to medium enterprises, and eventually into large firms. They believe that this would catalyse the creation of at least one million jobs and contribute to tax revenues. One of the major sub sectors of informal business that they are targeting is the Jua Kali. They are targeting at least 1 million entrepreneurs in the Jua Kali sector to have become established as formal small or large enterprises by the year 2022. The sector employs 11 million Kenyans, 50% of the country’s workforce.

 

Their counterpart in the opposition promises to unleash the potential of Jua Kali entrepreneurs by establishing at least one industrial park per ward for micro- and small enterprises. They also look to set up workshops where these entrepreneurs can lease machine time, a move that is aimed at giving these entrepreneurs access to machinery and equipment that they cannot individually afford. In order to help MSEs to develop globally competitive products, they plan to establish incubators that will help them break into export markets.

In as far as the agricultural sector is concerned, the opposition coalition has proposed that it will establish a Cooperative Enterprise Development Fund (CEDF) that will invest in agro-processing enterprises jointly with farmers organized as cooperatives as an equity partner. Once the agro-processing enterprise is successful, the CEDF will divest by selling shares to farmers through the cooperatives. On the other hand, the ruling coalition plans to establish a Food Acquisition Programme (FAP) to create demand and stable market prices for products from small-scale farmers who will be encouraged to form cooperatives in maize, wheat and potatoes. Under this programme, they plan to buy 50% of government food requirements from small holder farmers.

There is a myriad of other initiatives that both parties have put across in their manifestos that target micro, small and medium sized enterprises. My concern is that all of these promises look good on paper but will become a challenge when the time to implement them comes. This view is informed by the historical evidence of politicians wooing the voting class just before an election and turning their backs on them as soon as they are elected into office. All in all, the idea of investing in the informal economy is long overdue.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Role of Informality in Urbanization and Industrialization

The Economic Report on Africa 2017 was released by The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa(UNECA). This year’s report looked into ways in which the continent can harness industrialization to better structure the fast pace at which urbanization is taking place. Given that Africa is the fastest urbanization region after Asia, the report puts emphasis on the fact that only under the right policy frameworks can this momentum be leveraged so as to accelerate industrialization.

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(Source: http://www.uneca.org)

Some of the proposed measures point to ways in which informal businesses can be made a part of this process. One such measure was to bank on the links between informal and formal sectors, for these are mutually beneficial and dependent. Those involved in industrial land use planning should consider the needs of informal enterprises, given their importance for job absorption and the challenges they often face in finding adequate premises for work.

One option is to try to meet industrial firms’ location-specific needs through Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and industrial zones. These will bring the most benefits if they are well connected to the urban economy, including the informal sector firms that can provide low cost inputs and use linkages as a path to growth and formalization. SEZs present opportunities for co-investment by formal firms and the public sector in infrastructure and technical and vocational education and training, which can broaden participation in economic growth and provide avenues for inclusion of critical workforce groups such as women and youth. These links to markets and skilled labour are critical.

The report further states that studies suggest that informal operators benefit from clustering through the various sectors in which they operate, and that they generally have a positive impact on their formal sector counterparts. It is with this in mind that agglomeration economies should be considered in the context of locational policies related to the informal sector and a path to formalization. Agglomeration economies can benefit the informal sector particularly through proximity to suppliers and purchasers.

Also, low-tech, labour-intensive infrastructure projects accessible to SMEs are a major opportunity for urban job creation. Lower-skilled labour-intensive technologies have high potential in some public investment sectors, including roads. A good example is that of Ethiopia whereby between 2005 and 2008 through a cobblestone roads and pavement programme, more than 90,000 jobs for young people were created. This led to the establishment of 2,000 small and medium enterprises. The project included backward linkages to domestic inputs—cobblestones—and labour-intensive skills in quarrying, chiselling, transporting and paving. The programme, implemented in 140 towns and villages, built around 350 km of road.

In terms of access to finance, Sudan has taken steps to improve this for industrial firms, including SMEs. Policy efforts in 2013 simplified the regulatory framework for financial access and new bank branches, and the central bank made preparations for mobile banking. These reforms targeted small enterprises, which make up 93 per cent of manufacturing firms, by requiring that commercial banks set aside 12 per cent of resources for microfinance. It is with this spirit that African countries must leverage the force of urbanization to drive and enable industrial development for a prosperous and equitable future.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

The Role of Informality in the Kenya Industrial Transformation Programme 

The Kenya Industrial Transformation Programme (KITP) is an effort by the government to create an industrial hub in the country through sector specific initiatives in agro processing, textiles and apparel, leather, fisheries, services and SMEs (small and medium enterprises). With the SMEs sector being the fastest growing business segment of the economy accounting for 83% of the total employment demographic, I will highlight some of the strategies that have been proposed to make it more productive.

Image result for Kenya industrial Transformation Plan

(Source:https://issuu.com/kamkenya/docs/kitp_short_version_20150910__1_)

Some of the challenges that the sector faces include a lack of understanding of basic business practices such as book keeping and marketing. These limit their growth when it comes to accessing finance to expand their operations for they are seen to be high risk clients by financial institutions. The recent interest rate cap has negatively affected them as fewer can access loans from banks. Their level of human capital is also low due to a lack of formal education amongst most of the workers engaged in the sector. Most SMEs also have little knowledge of other markets which puts them at a disadvantage when it comes to approaching the export market.

Proposed initiatives in KITP aimed at uplifting the sector include the setting up of a fund to provide low cost financing to SMEs. The fund is to be set up as a credit guarantee system or as an investment in private equity funds with contribution from both government and development finance institutions. It is targeted at those SMEs with promising business plans as well as those that demonstrate potential for growth. 

The strategy also plans on establishing communication and training between large companies and SMEs so as to facilitate subcontracting. This move is meant to increase the share of large corporations in the country sourcing from local SMEs to 30%, while building the capacity of SMEs to meet these needs. This will also look into ways of  improving the capacity of the large companies to identify and manage suitable SMEs.

Another intervention is that of enhancing MSE’s (Micro and Small Enterprises) competitiveness. This will be done through a competition in every county where 5 products from entrepreneurs engaged in the manufacturing and agribusiness sub sectors will be selected to have their products available on supermarket shelves. The process will involve conducting quality, packaging and branding training to get their products certified by the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS). The winner of this competition will receive a prize of Kshs 1 million aimed at improving their operations.

Further, there are plans to establish a metal fabrication centre of excellence in Kariobangi, Nairobi, aimed at upgrading the existing Jua Kali metal fabricators by providing common user facilities, training programmes and incubation facilities. This will improve the quality and quantity of the products that these artisans produce, as well as equip them with technical skills which will include knowledge on how to operate modern machinery.

The KITP should not be one of those policy documents that are drafted, launched and eventually gather dust on the shelves of libraries and institutions. It is a noble initiative that needs to be fast tracked and implemented as it will translate to the improvement of the lives of the millions of Kenyans that are engaged in micro, small and medium sized economic activities.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

Developing Value Chains for Micro Enterprises

During this past week, the Ministry of Industrialisation and Enterprise Development organised an exhibition in Nairobi which was aimed at bolstering the sales of apparels that are manufactured at the Export Processing Zones (EPZ). Cabinet Secretary, Adan Mohamed announced that government had decided to avail up to 20% of goods and apparels manufactured by companies at the EPZ to the local market at affordable prices but for the same export quality. He added that some outlets will be opened around the country by small and medium sized enterprises where Kenyans can access the items after the exhibition.

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(Source:www.pension-watch.net/silo/images/blogs/11805_1323355569)

This is an interesting development considering that EPZs were set up with the initial intention of producing goods for export only. The government also intends to set up Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in key urban centres in the country whose main goal is to diversify manufacturing activities and create employment. Pilot programs for this project are currently ongoing in Mombasa, Lamu and Kisumu. As a means to fast track the establishment and growth of SEZs, the government exempted all supplies of goods and services to companies and developers in the zones from VAT and reduced the corporate tax rate for enterprises, developers and operators to 10 per cent for the first 10 years and 15 per cent for the next 10 years.

Considering the fact that sustained poverty coupled with subpar economic growth has continued to inhibit growth in the demand of locally manufactured goods, effective demand continues to shift more in favour of relatively cheaper imported manufactured items. In addition, the high cost of inputs informed by poor infrastructure which leads to high transport costs has led to high prices of locally manufactured products thereby limiting their competitiveness in the local and regional markets.

This is a move that if properly executed, will be an avenue for sustainable business growth and development for micro enterprises that operate in the agriculture, manufacturing and tourism sectors. This is the right time to look at value addition strategies that target the micro and small businesses that will be suppliers of products and services to the SEZs. In its strategy on decent work in the informal economy, the International Labour organization (ILO) suggests that one way to improve the sustainability of these informal enterprises may be to link them in cooperative structures where jointly owned input supply, credit and marketing services can be organized without compromising the autonomy of the individual entrepreneur.

It will be interesting to see the extent to which informal enterprises will benefit from SEZs. Deliberate thinking on how to link informal manufacturers with the SEZ initiatives is important. Strategies need to be developed to enhance the capacity of informal manufacturers to better service the formal enterprises that will be operating from the industrial parks. Such measures should include, but not limited to training, business mentoring and organizational development projects to better position the informal sector and their ability to meet orders by the established formal organisations. Doing so would improve their capacity to deliver quality products and thus better integrate them into the value chain.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst