Economic Survey 2020 Highlights – Informal Sector

The recently released the 2020 Economic Survey report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is an annual report that provides an analysis of the country’s economic health. This piece focuses on the aspects of the report that touch on the informal sector in as far as it’s contribution to the Kenyan economy is concerned.

According to the report, the economy created 846.3 thousand jobs, of which 744.1 thousand were in the informal sector. This represents an 87.9% contribution by the sector to total employment in the country in 2019. The number of people that are estimated to have been engaged in the informal sector stood at 15.1 million people. Of these, 64.5% are based in rural areas. Most of those engaged in this sector (60%) are occupied in the services sub-sectors such as hotels, restaurants, wholesale and retail businesses.

(Image Source: https://allafrica.com/stories/202003230046.html)

In addition, the report’s analysis on the informal sector further shows that there has been a 25% increase in the number of people it engages since 2015. This is reflective of the shrinkage in formal employment opportunities over the years.
It is however worth noting that over the past few years, there has been a positive shift in government policy towards the sector. This has been seen in it’s move to reeingineer funds and programs that are tailor-made for the sector. Moreover, the repealing of the interest rate cap has opened the window for more small businesses to access loans from financial institutions, as the latter are better positioned to accommodate the risk arising from these borrowers.

When all is said and done, the informal sector is one that is seldom understood and often misrepresented. This can be attributed to neglect by the governments under which it operates, mainly due to the fact that a majority of those that are engaged in the sector mostly consist of the financially disempowered members of the society. The country has taken a step in the right direction when it comes to formulating interventions that are aimed at supporting this crucial sector of the economy.
The next steps should not only entail the streamlining of these interventions and programs into public policy, but also ensuring a harmonious and coordinated push in their implementation. The successful implementation of such a strategy calls for a deliberate and active role by all players in the sector. The Micro and Small Enterprise Authority (MSEA) should reactivate it’s idle capacity and lead from the front. It is the only sure way of ensuring that a solid foundation upon which sustainable economic empowerment and financial inclusion can be is laid.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Sector Analyst.

The path to success for small businesses

Over the past two years or so, there has been a step up in the focus on interventions targeting the informal economy, with a lot of rhetoric on solutions to challenges facing this sector. It is no secret that that Micro Small and Medium sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are important drivers of growth in economies across Sub Saharan Africa, as they account for up to 90 percent of all businesses in these markets. Figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics have put MSMEs output at an estimated 33.8 percent GDP contribution in 2015. In terms of employment, 83 percent of employed Kenyans sat in the informal sector (which constitutes mainly of SMEs) in 2017. Further, the informal sector was responsible for creating 89 percent of new jobs in 2016.

(Image source: https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads)

The aforementioned statistical portrait points to the glaring fact that if there is going to be any meaningful approach in as far as societal economic empowerment is concerned, the informal sector has to be at the core of any such agenda. There are certain internal business practices in informal businesses that dampen their attractiveness to prospective investors. These include sub-par accounting practices, lack of access to appropriate skill and technology, inadequate self-marketing techniques, as well as the lack of business management guidance and mentoring. These internal factors often prevent small businesses from accessing capital and an ecosystem of support that would allow them to thrive and scale.

As various interventions are fronted, there are some that cut across most, if not all sub-sectors. These include capacity building initiatives that are aimed at improving the internal operations of these businesses such as basic book keeping. This aspect has been a major stumbling block when it comes to assessing the creditworthiness of small businesses. Beyond using collateral as a parameter to gauge the risk level of a business, internal business transaction records provide potential lending institutions with a historical financial narrative of the health of a business in a way that enables them to assess how much they can lend.

Addressing the lack of access to appropriate skill and technology is another key intervention that would benefit informal businesses across the board. This aspect is a big cause of standardization issues for the goods that they produce, which robs them of access to certain markets such as supermarkets and potential clientele across our national borders. Also, better technology will facilitate the production of higher quality goods on a larger scale. When it comes to self-marketing, most rely on word of mouth and are yet to adequately embrace readily available digital platforms such as social media.

Last but not least is the issue of business management guidance and mentoring. On the path towards sustainable and long term growth, this aspect is crucial in setting strategic goals for a business and thus offering clarity on the direction a business is taking. It enables a business to identify what challenges should be addressed immediately. Through mentoring, small businesses can scale the ladder to success faster by being in a better position to navigate pitfalls along the way.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Sector Analyst

Leveraging Diaspora Remittances for Informal Sector Development

In his book “The Mystery of Capital”, Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto firmly states that he is not a die-hard capitalist. On the contrary, he is an ardent believer in freedom, compassion for the poor and equal opportunity. He however goes on to state that capitalism is the only system we know that provides us with the tools required to create massive surplus value necessary to achieve the aforementioned goals. It is with this thought in mind that I looked into possible avenues through which diaspora remittances can be leveraged as a tool towards achieving sustainable socio-economic development in the country.

According to the Central Bank of Kenya, diaspora remittance inflows improved to USD 224 million in December 2018, a 20 percent increase from the previous year. The steady rise over the years to a position whereby diaspora remittances is one of the country’s top foreign exchange earners can be seen through two lenses. The first is that of increased support by the diaspora to their families back home. The other is that of the diaspora looking for viable local economic opportunities to invest in.

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The impact of the informal economy on job creation cannot be overemphasised. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the informal economy accounted for 83.9 percent of total employment statistics in 2017. Despite most of the jobs being of poor quality, one cannot deny the fact that this has been propelled by a shrinking availability of formal job opportunities. Beyond challenges such as low technical capacity and poor working conditions, access to finance has been one of the major stumbling blocks to the longevity of most informal business.

The Kenya Diaspora Alliance has indicated that about 25 percent of remittances goes into investment while the rest goes into personal consumption. Plans are underway to establish a microfinance bank through which they can channel their investments. It is interesting to note that in Kenya, there are more than 10 SACCOs that target Kenyans in the diaspora, who mainly invest in real estate.

What most Kenyans in the diaspora may not fully understand is that some of the money that they send back home ends up supporting informal businesses, albeit in an unstructured manner. A step that would ensure return on investment is by developing synergies with this sector through the microfinance bank, targeting a broader array of SACCOs. It is through such collaborative efforts that issues such as access to wider markets for goods produced in the informal sector can be achieved by linking them to markets in the diaspora.

In this sense, the diaspora remittances can be a seen as a viable solution towards enhancing social equity, while at the same time ensuring that it’s investment portfolio is strategically broadened. By doing so, the diaspora will not only be in a stronger position to cement their role as a driver of the local economy, but will also have gone a long way in playing a bigger role in contributing to and owning the national development agenda.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

Supporting Business in Informal Settlements

There are pertinent issues that need to be addressed in as far as tackling some of the challenges that face micro and small businesses in informal settlements in Kenya. It is with this in mind that the Centre for International Private Enterprise conducted a survey of the business community in Mathare and developed a policy brief aimed at improving the business environment in the area. The survey identified the lack of appropriate working spaces and related infrastructural services as one of the the key barriers to conducting business. Also, the need for better collaboration between the business community and county government around investment and planning was seen as a crucial aspect.

As per the survey, 70% of those interviewed did not have access to appropriate working spaces with proper storage facilities for their goods. It is worth noting that business owners who sell fruits, vegetables and other perishable products experienced even greater challenges in accessing storage and preventing premature inventory loss. Further, the traders incur transportation costs since they must carry their wares to and from their working areas. Those who rent storage facilities pay high fees of up to Kshs 3000 per month.

(Image source: http://www.herbusiness.co.ke)

Due to the lack of trading space, most traders in the area setup their businesses in open spaces close to customers, as very few have rented business premises. As a result, a majority of the businesses in the area operate at the mercy of gangs whereby intimidation is high. 40% of the respondents reported that illegal gangs currently allocate trading spaces at a fee. Not only does the lack of trading spaces help finance gang operations, but it also reduces the chances of the unemployed youth getting working spaces because of gang pressure.

Also, poor infrastructure and service delivery reduces profitability and has often led to business closures. Low service provision by the county particularly for water, sanitation and security drives up cost of doing business. Services such as garbage collection and roads are poorly maintained, and in most areas not provided. About 70% of the businesses located along the roadside have no designated garbage disposal, causing the littered and uncollected garbage to block the main drainage and sewer lines within the area.

Some policy recommendations that arose as the most effective ways to address a myriad of the business community’s concerns include the allocation of existing spaces to businesses around the community, alongside the provision of low-costs structures in the form of kiosks or curios. In addition, improving service delivery by establishing centralized working areas, as well as the installation of security lights will go a long way in assisting them to come up with self-regulating mechanisms on how to enhance the security of their businesses and customers. Above all else, lowering the cost of doing business will enable businesses to be more profitable and thus be in a position to create employment opportunities.

Traders proposed that the Nairobi County government should provide municipal services while other stakeholders, including the private sector, ought to organize and conduct capacity-building initiatives such as business skills training. This move will enhance and facilitate the growth of business linkages within the larger private sector.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

Growing trade in the world’s least developing economies

The United Nations defines Least Developed Countries (LDCs) as those that exhibit the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development, with the lowest human development index ratings (life expectancy, education, income per capita). Of the 47 countries that are currently designated as LDCs, 33 are African. The Least Developed Countries Report 2018, a publication of the United Nations Congress on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is an analysis that looks at among other factors, how LDCs’ interact with global value chains.

Notably, the share of LDCs in global trade is less than 1 percent, a relatively constant trend since 2008. In contrast, their export-to-GDP ratios average about 25 percent, substantially below the developing country average of about 35 percent. The participation of LDCs in global value chains is significantly affected by trade and investment agreements. To this end, it is vital for LDCs on the African continent to look towards avenues that facilitate and harmonize trade across their borders. Once ratified and functional, the African Free Continental Trade Area (AfCFTA) is one such avenue that will widen market access.

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The report points out that the incidence of self-employment in LDCs is at 70 percent of total employment, compared with 50 percent in other developing countries. This trend is particularly prevalent in rural areas and the urban informal sector. Due to the fact that only 3 percent of the self-employed in LDCs in turn employ others, they are the ones that are considered as engaging in progressive forms of entrepreneurship. In other words, only about 8 million of the 185 million people in self-employment in LDCs are considered as being entrepreneurial.

Further, in the nine LDCs for which data are available, the majority of activities that these entrepreneurs engage in are consumer-oriented services such as personal services, social and recreational services and services in retail, motor vehicles, lodging, restaurants, health and education. As per the publication, for structural transformation to occur, there needs to be a concerted effort to encourage the growth of businesses in activities that are categorized as the transformative sector (construction, manufacturing, transportation, communications, utilities and wholesale) and business oriented services (finance, insurance, real estate and all business services). As it stands, only 15 percent of early entrepreneurs and 20 percent of established businesses in LDCs operate in the transformative sector and only 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, in business-oriented services.

Also, it is worth noting that the International Institute for Environment and Development found out that growth generated by agriculture is up to four times as effective in reducing poverty as growth in other sectors. Reaping full benefits in poverty reduction is thus pegged on the growth of SMEs, which generally include smallholders and small family farms.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

Driving affordable housing through mortgage refinance

In October 2018, the Centre for Affordable Housing (CAHF) launched the 9^th edition of its Housing Finance in Africa Yearbook, at the 34^th Annual Conference and AGM of the African Union of Housing Finance, held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. The yearbook covers the housing finance situation in 54 countries across the continent, providing data and market information on policy, regulation, and private sector activity in the housing sector in 2018. One of the interesting angles of this edition is that it highlights the importance of the development of underwriting standards for borrowers in the informal economy, a key element of the affordable housing value chain.

(Image source: http://housingfinanceafrica.org)

According to the publication, the World Bank estimates that up to 90 percent of housing finance in Kenya is supplied by Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) and housing cooperative networks. In it’s review of the Kenyan housing finance market, the Bank found that less than  10 percent of all housing credit in Kenya comes in the form of mortgages from the banking sector, with the remainder coming from SACCOs and housing cooperatives. It was further observed that SACCOs package home loans as development loans, generally at lower rates, and with faster processing times than what is offered by commercial banks.

It is with this in mind that plans are underway to launch a Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (KMRC) in 2019. A key focus of this facility will be on the savings and credit cooperative (SACCO) lending market. Kenya’s SACCO and housing cooperative sector provides very useful insights into how the savings of low and moderate-income households might be aggregated in support of a capital base that can then be leveraged to support housing lending. The yearbook points out that housing cooperatives such as the National Cooperative Housing Union (NACHU) have established developer expertise and strong relationships with their members in the delivery of affordable housing.

In Kenya, the Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing and Urban Development announced plans to enable the construction of 500 000 affordable housing units over the next five years as part of the government’s four flagship projects. Phase 1 will include the delivery of 30 000 units in Nairobi using government land to reduce the delivery cost and boost affordability. 80 percent of the units will be priced between Ksh 800,000 (US$8 000) and Ksh 1 million (US$10,000). The remaining 20 percent of the units will be demarcated for social housing, consisting of urban slum upgrades and costing an average of Ksh 650, 000 (US$6 500).

The publication further notes that a consortium of 35 SACCOs recently launched a housing loans plan in Kenya, enabling their members to obtain interest free mortgages by paying “rent” instalments over 20 years. Also, SACCOs offer micro-mortgages through the Kenya Union of Savings and Credit Co-operatives (KUSCCO) Housing Fund. However, as the World Bank notes, SACCOs’ single source of liquidity is member deposits, which limits their ability to grow their housing loan portfolio.

If properly executed, this mortgage refinance facility would go a long way in encouraging commercial banks to enter the mortgage space by providing liquidity to these institutions. A good example from within the region is Tanzania, whereby the Tanzania Mortgage Refinance Company (TMRC) has been instrumental in growing the mortgage market, increasing the number of mortgage lenders from 3 to 31 over a six-year period.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

Eradicating Poverty

Understanding China’s Poverty Eradication Model

The international poverty line of purchasing power parity (PPP) stands at USD 1.90 per day. Based on this parameter, from 1981 to 2013, China lifted 850 million people out of poverty, with the percentage of people living in extreme poverty falling from 88% to 1.85%. The country has also contributed to over 70% of the poverty reduced across the world, which also makes it the country with the most people lifted out of poverty in the world. These were some of the gains that were presented to the Expert Panel on the Implementation of the Third UN Decade for the Eradication of Poverty (2018-2027) in Addis Ababa in April 2018 by the International Poverty Reduction Center in China (IPRCC).

(Image source: https://www.chinausfocus.com)

According to the World Bank, more than half of the world’s extreme poor live in Sub-Saharan Africa. The number of poor in the region increased by 9 million, with 413 million people living on less than US$1.90 a day in 2015, more than all the other regions combined. If the trend continues, it is projected that by 2030, nearly 9 out of 10 extreme poor will be in Sub-Saharan Africa. In a bid to counter this downward trend, there is a leaf that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa can borrow from the Chinese poverty eradication agenda.

The establishment of the institutional framework by China that facilitated their upward trajectory in their poverty eradication agenda was a key contributor to this success. This framework comprises seven robust institutional systems that oversee this process. These include a registration system, a policy system, an investment system, an assistance system, a social mobilization system, an all-around supervision system and an assessment system.

Despite setting up clear poverty reduction goals, China also established a database and registered poor households. To this end, the country currently has poverty data of its populace that is specific to each person, household and village; a first in the world. By doing so, the government was better placed to get a clearer picture of  poverty distribution, causes and reduction requirements of the population for the efficient targeting of interventions.

The nation has made notable contributions towards tackling global poverty, which include policies and measures that focus on fostering partnerships with developing countries. One such contribution is the forgiving of governmental zero-interest loans that matured at the end of 2015, owned by the relevant developing countries. Another is the setting up of the Assistance Fund for South-South Cooperation with an initial pledge of 2 billion dollars to support developing countries in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

(Image source: https://moderndiplomacy.eu)

Further, within the next five years, China plans to enhance its interaction with developing countries by instituting 100 poverty reduction programs, 100 agricultural cooperation projects, 100 trade promotion programs and 100 environmental protection and climate change programs. The plan also includes the construction of 100 hospitals and clinics, as well as 100 schools and vocational training centers. This comes alongside the provision of 120,000 opportunities and 150,000 scholarships for citizens of developing countries to receive training and education in China.

This is an opportunity for developing nations to leverage. As aforementioned, the levels of extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa will only be exacerbated if the current government policies are not adjusted to better engage and accommodate the less fortunate.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

 

 

 

The hidden role of informality in formal business

The synergy between formal and informal businesses is a factor that should be leveraged upon by those looking to improve and strengthen the business environment on the African continent. The multiple definitions of the informal sector have often not been precise, especially whenever it is looked at in relation to the formal economy, and not as a distinct entity. It is with this in mind that the authors of the research paper “Informal Sector Dynamics and its Role in the Capital Accumulation Process” interestingly point out that the central meaning and relevance of this phenomenon of informality as a sector or workforce become clear only when considered in the light of the global capital accumulation process.

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It is common knowledge that in today’s world, the informal sector is an integral and essential part of global commodity and value chains. What is at the core of the interaction and dynamics between the two sectors is a range of flexibilities that can be ascribed to informal sector processes.

Factors that are common in informal circles such as the lack of a regulatory environment, the flexibility or absence of labour contracts and the ability to stretch hours of operation at ease are adopted by formal firms when they subcontract informal firms to perform some of their production and distribution jobs. It is this flexibility and managing to keep transaction and labour costs to the minimum, which is at the core of the dynamics of small enterprises that allows them to survive and provides them the competitive edge. This advantage is made use of by large multinationals in their pursuit of global profits.

Also, formal firms further accentuate informality through their restructuring processes. This is done in cases whereby the formal firm downsizes its labour force and thus forcing people into the informal sector as a means of survival and source of livelihood.

What comes out clearly is that there are two distinct processes in which informalisation of employment takes place in formal sector firms. The first is to employ labour without any permanent wage or employment contract or provide any employment benefit. The other is to subcontract operations that were earlier performed by employees of the firm to smaller or ‘specialised’ enterprises. A particular form of this is to subcontract operations to labour contractors or suppliers, where even if particular employees are regularly working in the principal firm, they are not considered the employees of the principal firm and are therefore denied any rights, which they would have otherwise got.

The thrust of the idea is to highlight the point that solutions on how to better engage and improve the informal sector can only be effectively implemented by working through formal firms that constitute a crucial part of their value chain. It is vital for policy makers and parties that are involved in drafting strategy to have a clear understanding of the definition of the informality as a means to getting to its root causes in a way that will enhance their engagement processes with the sector.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst.

Informal Cross Border Trade in Africa

In March 2018, African heads of State gathered in Kigali to launch an initiative that will increase the level of intra African trade. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) points out that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a move in the right direction for the continent, as it will cover a market of 1.2 billion people and a gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion, across all 55 member States of the African Union. In terms of numbers of participating countries, AfCFTA will be the world’s largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organization.

(Image Source: https://image.chitra.live/ )

Considering that informal cross border trade (ICBT) is a source of income to about 43 percent of Africa’s population, boosting informal cross border trade on the continent is an integral part of achieving sustainable development. Further, small and medium-sized enterprises account for around 80 per cent of the region’s businesses. UNECA also indicates that women are estimated to account for around 70 percent of informal cross border traders in Africa and are exposed to challenges such as harassment, violence, confiscation of goods and even imprisonment. By and large, ICBT is largely practiced by the officially unemployed and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), and is therefore also important for strategies of inclusion.

An example of an intervention that is worth mentioning is one by TradeMark East Africa (TMEA) in a project in Rwanda aimed at increasing the economic power of women in informal cross-border trade. The project started from scratch to identify women who were trading informally across borders, and who had no capital, in order to help them become registered and recognised, and build successful businesses. In over six years, support has been given to 63 cooperatives with over 3,000 members, of whom 98 percent are women, in nine main border districts, by developing their knowledge and skills and helping them to gain access to finance and markets.

Another point worth noting is that 90 percent of the firms within the African private sector are small and medium sized enterprises. The Trade Law Centre (TRALAC) highlights the fact that these businesses are limited in their participation in cross border trade due to tariffs, non-tariff barriers, complex customs and trade procedures, lack of access to finance and information, among other factors. The lost opportunities in this sense are immense and can be viewed from different perspectives; the first is that of small businesses being limited in their revenue streams due to these restrictions. The other is that of governments losing out on potential revenue.

So far, 49 out of 55 countries have signed up for the AfCFTA. In order to maximize the benefits that could be accrued, some factors that require streamlining include strengthening intra-regional trade dispute resolution mechanisms and building the capacity of the manufacturing sector. This would ensure that African governments leverage the access to a wider market for locally produced goods and create employment opportunities for their populace.

Also, by reducing and simplifying tariffs and non-tariff barriers, AfCFTA would make it more affordable for informal traders to operate through formal channels, which offer more protection. This move would not only facilitate the operations of small businesses engaged in cross border trade, but also strategically increase revenue for governments across African borders. Efforts like these will enhance intra-regional trade and further cement the continental integration agenda.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst

Developing ASAL regions in Kenya

About a month ago, I had the pleasure of accompanying a team of consultants to the North Eastern part of Kenya. Most of the counties in the region fall under the Arid and Semiarid Lands (ASALs) geographic section of the country and are predominantly engaged in pastoralism. It was while on the trips to Turkana and Marsabit counties that I noticed various levels of informal businesses i.e. MSMEs and SMEs, through which intricate distribution networks are the basis to supplying value chains to formal business in the different towns. Women dominate the small-scale trade in these towns.

(Image Source: https://staticflickr.com)

Despite the fact that most still have to contend with issues such as insecurity, working in poor conditions, inadequately serviced working spaces, all of which affect their productivity and profitability, these businesses continue to play a central role in sustaining the financial ecosystem of these regions. The issue of insecurity has had a negative impact and limited business operations in the towns that are closer to the Ethiopian and Somalian borders.

This aspect of insecurity hinders business operations in the sense that most businesses have to close before darkness falls, thus limiting their hours of operation. Linked to this is the fact that as visitors to these towns, we were restricted in our movements, unless accompanied by a security agent. This limited our interaction with a larger number of businesses, thus denying them revenue. Further, the aspect of insecurity is a strong deterrent to business investors who are not from the region.

Most businesses that operate along the national border towns heavily rely on cross border interactions for both the supply and demand of goods and services. In cases where the border closes to handle security concerns, they lose revenue due to curfews that can last for weeks, thus negatively affecting their profitability and productivity.

According to the Ministry of Devolution, The ASALs host about 70% of the national livestock herd with an estimated value of about Kshs. 70 billion. Livestock accounts for about 90% of employment in the ASALs and over 95% of family income and contributes an average of Kshs. 10 Billion a year from 23.2 million animals. There are very few facilities in the region to handle this capacity hence a large number of livestock is transported to Nairobi.  It is thus paramount to hasten the establishment of abattoirs with cold storage facilities to fully tap into this resource.

(Image Source: https://economist.com)

As the country contemplates the revival of a depleted leather industry, capacity-building initiatives targeting pastoralists with programs of good animal husbandry will enhance the quality of leather produced. This will also immensely contribute to increasing avenues through which quality sustainable livelihoods become a reality for families in the region. As it is, the pastoralists only consider meat as the primary source of revenue and in most cases, the hide is discarded. It therefore comes as no surprise that the Kenya Leather Development Council has pointed out that the quality of Kenya’s leather has declined by 70% since the 1970s.

Tackling unemployment amongst the youth in the region is key to reducing the insecurity caused by terrorism. Due to idleness, most youth are snared by recruits who promise a source of income. Creating opportunities that will engage them will go a long way in ensuring that there is a secure and stable business environment. In a bid to develop livelihoods in the region, government and development partners need to implement policies and programs that are geared towards maximizing the livestock resource in the region.

litualex@gmail.com

Informal Economy Analyst